* Euro zone periphery government bond yields http://tmsnrt.rs/2ii2Bqr
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By Stefano Rebaudo
MILAN, June 18 (Reuters) – German government bond yields
recovered some losses while peripheral borrowing costs jumped on
Friday, tracking an upward move in U.S. Treasuries after
comments about U.S. inflation by a Federal Reserve official.
“It’s natural that we’ve tilted a little bit more hawkish
here to contain inflationary pressures,” St. Louis Federal
Reserve bank President James Bullard said on CNBC, after
mentioning more intense than expected inflation.
Bullard is one of seven Fed officials who forecast a rate
increase in late 2022. Thirteen out of 18 policymakers foresaw a
“liftoff” in borrowing costs in 2023 at the Fed policy meeting
on Wednesday.
U.S. 10-year government bond yields recovered
some earlier losses and were down 1 basis point at 1.5%.
“Fed’s Bullard made clear the debate about a Fed tapering
will continue, while he sees a first rate increase in late 2022,
triggering a new selloff in government bonds,” Andrea Ponti,
co-head fixed income portfolio management at Kairos Partners,
said.
“Italian bond prices, which are credit-sensitive, are
underperforming,” he added.
Germany’s 10-year government bond yield, the
bloc’s benchmark, was down 1 basis points at -0.20%.
The first bond backing the EU’s COVID-19 recovery fund
issued on Wednesday continued to outperform the
same maturity Bund, with yields falling 5 bps to 0.043%.
Unicredit analysts said that “after a turbulent week, we
expect the next several days to see a modest increase in U.S.
real rates, to which euro zone government bond yields should
remain rather immune.”
Periphery bond prices continued to underperform core bonds
as they have benefited most from the ultra-accommodative
monetary policy to avoid the pandemic’s adverse economic impact.
Italy’s 10-year government bond yield was up 4.5
bps at 0.872%. Portugal 10-year yields rose 2 basis
points to 0.433%.
Semi-core bonds, such as France’s OAT, were flat
at 0.16%.
On the U.S. front, the “capitulation of 10y TIPS break-evens
to the lowest level since end-March amid steady real yields is
leaving inflation expectations as (Fed chair Jerome) Powell’s
major victim,” Commerzbank analysts said.
They seem “misguided in the current situation”, they added.
According to Deutsche Bank economist George Saravelos, this
notable drop in U.S. inflation expectations coupled with a fall
in nominal yields “is telling us that the market is taking an
extremely pessimistic view on real neutral rates”.
“If the Fed decides to go early, the market is saying it
won’t be able to go very far before inflation and growth hit a
speed limit, pushing yield expectations after the initial hike
lower,” Saravelos said in a research note.
(Reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Jan Harvey)
